STARDUST OPENING LINE MOVES 9-28

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Here are the opening line moves from the lottery held at the Stardust this past Sunday night. NFL line moves are in the NFL & CFL Forum.

TOOK MONEY OPEN BET TO OPPONENT
Houston (Tuesday) -2.5 -3 EAST CAROLINA
Oregon (Friday) -2.5 -3 UTAH
PENN ST. +3 +2.5 Wisconsin
AUBURN -1 -1.5 Tennessee
MIAMI-OHIO -20 -21 Akron
Alabama-Birmingham +11.5 +11 MEMPHIS
COLORADO ST. -6 -6.5 Fresno St.
IOWA +4 +3 Michigan
Kansas St. +7 +6 TEXAS
Washington -1 -1.5 UCLA
WASHINGTON ST. -28 -29.5 Arizona
Oklahoma -19.5 -20.5 IOWA ST.
TULSA +16 +13.5 Hawaii
SMU -10.5 -11 Texas-El Paso
ARIZONA ST. +12.5 +11.5 Southern Cal
Nevada-Las Vegas -3 -3.5 NEVADA
UL-Monroe +9 +8.5 ARKANSAS ST.

Home team in CAPS

Last week: Early college bettors went 8-9 last week (with one game – Hawaii’s 41-21 win over Rice – landing right on the opening number) in the Stardust lottery and are 26-34 (43.3 percent) so far this season.
 

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ppeter...the college line moves were 48 percent last year, but they were around 56 percent in 2001. So, if you faded them two years ago, you'd be in the poorhouse...but if you jumped on the bandwagon last season and starting going against them you'd be very happy. As for the future, that's anyone's guess.

That being said. It should be stated (as I've written several times in other threads) that these lines moves are not to be viewed as predictions, per se. In reality, a number of the bettors participating in the Stardust lottery are looking for middle opporunities...lay 9.5 at the Stardust and take +11 at a book offshore or elsewhere in town, etc. Viewed this way, it could be said that the Stardust's opening numbers have been stronger than the offshore numbers that bettors are comparing them to.

Visitors to The Prescription are (by majority) pretty well informed with where the line originated and how it's moving during the week. In the Daily Racing Form, I write to a varied audience that, while it includes many sharp sports bettors, also includes people who bet more on horses and just dabble in football, or other levels of recreational players. So I'm providing this info to them so they know if they should consider grabbing a line earlier in the week (before it moves more) or waiting until the line moves more before betting...and I share it here to help those who also see this as valuable information.

Some people think it's very helpful...others think it's irrelevant (since they can't get the best numbers that are gone anyway). But to each their own.

In a way, you might be onto something by suggesting fading these moves because you'd always be getting the best of it as the line moves in your favor (compared to if you bet the original side at the worse number). Let me know what (if anything) you decide to do.

Best of luck.
 

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ppeter...FYI, the opening college line moves went 10-7 this past week (though if you faded them later in the week, you would have gone 8-9 instead of 7-10 because you should have gotten Nevada +4.5 or +5 and UNLV won by 4)...a nice middle for some people out there.
 

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